GBP/JPY - Japanese yen traders managed to push the cross back after GBP/JPY set a multi-year high at 213.00, and collapsed through the psychologically important 210.00 handle and are in the process of breaking below the channel's lower boundary, a level marked by the 50-day SMA at 205.46. As the price action remains on the side of the Japanese yen longs, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids below the psychologically important 205.00 handle, a level defended by the key 38.2 Fib of the 192.67-213.06 GBP rally at 205.26. A sustained momentum on the part of the yen traders will most likely see GBPJPY tumble further and test the sterling bids around 202.87, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 192.67-213.06 GBP rally. Indicators are signaling trending conditions with ADX above 25 at 27.45, while both momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line thus favoring the pound bulls, with oversold Stochastic giving yen traders a chance to extend their rally.
GBP/CHF - Cable longs once again pushed the cross higher only to see their momentum stall above the triangle's lower boundary, a level further reinforced by the 50.0 Fib of the 2.3310-2.2345 CHF, thus seeing the potential breakout turn into a fakeout. An inability by the sterling traders to push the cross higher confirms the overall dominance of the price action by the Swissie traders, which will most likely push the pound bulls lower and take on the 2.2713, a 38.2 Fib of the 2.3310-2.2345 CHF rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross break of the triangle's lower boundary, a level reinforced by the 23.6 Fib of the 2.3310-2.2345 CHF rally at 2.2572 and with sustained momentum heading below the psychologically important 2.2500 handle. Indicators are favoring the pound longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line. Oscillators remain neutral, thus giving either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/AUD - Pound traders remained in control of the price action as they pushed the cross above the psychologically important 2.3500 handle and without losing momentum broke above 2.3561, a level established by the key 38.2 Fib of the 2.5672-2.2692 AUD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and with a move above the 200-day SMA at 2.3750, most likely seeing pound bulls push above the triangle's upper boundary. A confirmed breakout will most likely see GBPAUD head higher and collapse Aussie offers around 2.3836, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 2.5672-2.2692 AUD rally, and with sustained momentum seeing the sterling traders pushing their Australian dollar counterparts above the next psychologically important 2.4000 handle. Indicators are diverging, with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, with while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.