My intermediate-term pattern work in Caterpillar (CAT) off of the March 2009 low at 21.71 into the May 2011 high at 118.00 indicates that after a correction, a new upleg should emerge that propels CAT to new bull market highs projected into the 125 area.

The enclosed 4-hour chart shows the correction from May into the mid-June low at 94.21, followed by the initial upmove in a new upleg that peaked at 114.05 on 7/22. Current weakness that has pressed CAT into today's low should be the conclusion of the correction of the June-July advance, after which another upmove should emerge that initiates the next powerful rally. So far, the correction has a low of 101.10, which has the right characteristics of an emotional, momentum low.

That said, at this time I cannot rule out a retest and marginal breach of 101.10 prior to the anticipated resumption of strength. Conversely, a climb that sustains above 103.20 will trigger initial confirmation that a significant low has been established.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.