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Market Drops as Afternoon Reversal from Monday Continues
By Toni Hansen | Published  03/10/2005 | Futures | Unrated
Market Drops as Afternoon Reversal from Monday Continues

 

Good day! Wednesday brought with it a pretty nice day for trading. The market headed lower for most of the day, falling in line with expectations. There was a good deal of movement intraday though. The morning began with a move lower for the first 45 minutes of the day to continue the prior afternoon's selling. It stalled as the indices hit an equal move on their 15 minute charts as compared to Monday afternoon's drop.

 

The market actually pivoted strongly off the 10:15 ET lows, rallying quickly to new intraday highs and brining the NASDAQ, which had the most relative strength for the day. It made it back into highs from late Tuesday and the 5 minute 200 sma. The SP500 and the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. also hit resistance at the same time with their 15 minute 20 simple moving averages. This served to stall the upside and the market began to pull in once more.

The pace on the mid-day reversal was a bit slower to start with than the rally, but still on the stronger side. It stalled as the 5 minute 20 sma hit. Here the indices based with volume dropping off into noon to create a 5 minute Avalanche pattern going into the early afternoon. This helped to increase pace as well on the downside and the breakdown was followed by another one with a 5 minute Bear Flag leading to a third wave of selling on that time frame going into the 13:00 ET reversal period.

As with nearly every series of three waves of selling, the odds were higher for a larger correction off the 13:00 ET lows. It could do this with a 2B by retesting lows and then moving higher in to the close, or it could form a larger Bear Flag and head lower again. On Wednesday we saw the latter. The market fell into a pretty choppy range for about 2 hours and then the indices began to favor the lower end of their trend channel, holding 14:00 ET reversal period highs and creating a breakdown into the last hour of the day.

CVD and AFFX both have hit trailing stops. CTX, WLP and ANF 20 day moving average remain support. I did find a few swingtrade shorts intraday with OSTK, GOOG and CECO, which all look lower still on the daily charts, but heading into Thursday they are getting extended intraday so I'd want to see 30-60 minute patterns for any new entries.

The market overall is still seeing the NASDAQ form a weekly Avalanche base with plenty of room for downside. The SP500 and Dow are currently dealing with 20 day sma support which held for lows on Wednesday. With the selling into the close there are not any new intraday patterns on the 30-60 minute charts forming at this time and support from the range last week is starting to hit so we are looking at higher potential for a more choppy day.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.