EUR/JPY - Euro bulls failed to sustain the momentum of their advance after the Japanese yen bulls managed to keep the cross from gathering speed above the 141.00 handle. A break below 140.00 combined with a breakdown of the channel's lower boundary will most likely see the euro bulls retreat toward 137.86, a level marked by the September 2 daily high, with a further move to the downside seeing the cross test the euro defenses around 137.14, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 130.68-141.17 EUR rally. A further collapse of the euro defenses will most likely see the yen longs push their way toward the 135.89, a 50.0 Fib of the 130.68-141.17 EUR rally and a gateway to the psychologically important 135.00 handle. Indicators signal trending conditions with ADX above 25 at 30.90 with both the momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
EUR/CHF - Euro longs remained in a sideways treading market as the cross continued to revolve around 1.5439, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. A move to the downside will most likely see the Swissie break below the euro's defenses at 1.5409, a September 12 daily low, with a further move to the downside most likely seeing the cross head toward 1.5370, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. Indicators favor the Swiss Franc longs with both the momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro longs a chance to retaliate.
EUR/GBP - British pound bulls managed push their way toward the .6726, a 23.6 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally, following the massive counterattack the cable longs launched against the euro. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the cross taking on the .6687, a level marked by the June 22 daily high, and with a further move below the .6650 line seeing the sterling bulls take on the single currency defenses around .6608, a level established by the 2005 Low. Indicators are favoring the pound longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro longs a chance to retaliate.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.