This morning in pre-market trading, the UltraShort QQQ ProShares ETF (QID) gapped down and established a new low at 19.27 off of the February 5 recovery high at 22.15. Remember, all of the major equity market ETF's established significant lows on February 5, which makes it the pivot price of consequence.

Let's notice that the QID's rally off of today's oversold new low at 19.27 has hit a high at 19.73, which happens to be right against the nearest-term intraday resistance line. To get any traction on the upside, the QID's must hurdle and sustain above 19.75, but also above the prior rally peak at 19.85, which should trigger upside follow-through to test the February down trendline, now at 20.40. As of this moment, given the extremely quiet conditions and the inability of the price structure to take out the nearest-term resistance line, I am reluctant to add to my 25% long position in the QIDs.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.