On Friday, low volume and the expiration of December futures and options contributed to volatility in the market, and the strengthening of the dollar served to subdue the broad market. For the day, the Dow gained 20.63 points, the S&P 500 gained 6.39 points, and the Nasdaq gained 31.64 points. For the week, the Dow was down 1.3 percent, the S&P was down 0.3 percent, and Nasdaq was up one percent.
In the coming week, investors may see heightened volatility as low volume accompanies a shortened holiday trading week. The "Santa Claus rally" that typically pushes the market up at year’s end is expected to be overshadowed by the fact that the market has made such dramatic gains since March that investors now may be unwilling to risk the profits.
Investors will pay attention to the results of the final shopping weekend before Christmas. Analysts expect that holiday sales will barely surpass those of 2008, when sales actually fell for the first time in ten years.
Economic data to be released in the coming week includes, on Tuesday, the final figure for third-quarter GDP, expected to register at 2.8 percent. Although positive, it is felt that the market has already factored in that news.
Also on Tuesday, existing home sales for November are forecast to have risen to 6.25 million on an annual basis. On Wednesday, new home sales figures for November are predicted at 440,000 annually, a slight rise over October’s figure. All home sales have been impacted by the $8000 federal tax credit available to first-time home buyers.
The final figure for December consumer sentiment will be released on Wednesday. It is expected to rise to 73.5, a substantial increase over the October figure of 67.4. Personal income, also to be released on Wednesday, is expected to rise 0.5 percent. And durable goods orders for November, due on Thursday, will likely increase 0.5 percent.
But initial jobless claims, expected to come in at 470,000 on Thursday, will keep the unemployment rate at its 26-year high of ten percent.
8 Stocks to Watch
Conagra Foods, Inc. (CAG)
Equity Residential (EQR)
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)
Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
RadioShack Corporation (RSH)
salesforce.com, inc. (CRM)
Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. (SNI)
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.