Technical Overview

• Euro Climbs Above 1.2100
• British Pound Bounces Of 1.7900
• New Zealand Dollar Pushes Toward .7100

Trader's Corner
It's hard to take a loss, but as a trader that what you do, you take losses along with profits, its how you handle them, that is the ultimate resolve. Cut your losses and let your profit run, but over 95% of traders tend to grab a quick profit and let the losses run, and in the long run they run out of trading capital and move on with their lives. It's easy to take profits and hard to let them run and it's easy to let the losses run and hard to take them, because psychologically it's not a loss if it's not taken, but reality dictates otherwise. In order to become a successful trader you must go against the human nature of hopes and dreams and learn how to face reality. Please feel free to email me at sshenker@fxcm.com with your comments.

EUR/USD - Euro bulls managed to push their way through the greenback defenses around 1.2122, a level marked by the October 17 high, but stalled ahead of the 1.2200 handle as the price action remained confined by the 50-day SMA at 1.2160.  A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the euro test the dollar defenses around 1.2253, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally, with subsequent reversal seeing the greenback bulls reestablish their dominance and pushing the pair back down toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs took a quick dip below the 115.00 handle only to be shoved back up by the greenback bulls as the pair remained in a tight trading range. A successful move below the psychologically important 115.00 handle will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 114.73, a level established by the 20-day SMA, with a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head toward the 113.75, a level marked by the October 17 daily low. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 25.75 signaling an existence of a trend not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

GBP/USD - British pound bulls managed to break above the dollar defenses around 1.7820, a level marked by the August 31 daily high as sterling longs continued to push their way toward the psychologically important 1.8000 handle. A break above will most likely see the cable bulls taking on the dollar defenses seen around 1.8017, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.9219-1.7284 USD rally, with sustained momentum will most likely seeing the pound longs lose momentum around 1.8149, a level marked by the September 22 daily high.  Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line, while the negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc longs continued to push the pair lower as Swissie continued to test the dollar defenses around 1.2703, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.1492-1.3085 USD rally. A break to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 1.2535, a level marked by the September 14, daily high, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.2500 figure. A break below the psychologically important 1.2500 handle will most likely see the pair lose momentum around 1.2471, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.1492-1.3085 USD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator below the zero line, while the positive MACD is sloping downward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls failed to push the pair below the 1.1650 level, thus leaving a hammer reversal pattern in their wake. A reversal from these levels will most likely see the pair head back up toward the 1.1857, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally, with a further move to the upside seeing the pair head toward the 1.2027, a level established by the   38.2 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally, thus seeing the Loonie bulls give up the control to the psychologically important 1.2000 handle.  Indicators are favoring the Canadian dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar failed to sustain the momentum of their advance as they approached the US dollar defenses around .7604, a 38.2 Fib of the .7991-.7374 USD rally, thus retreating below the 50-day SMA at .7590. Another attempt to push the upside will most likely see the Aussie bulls head higher and test the greenback defenses around .7678, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the.7991-.7374 USD rally. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the US dollar longs reassert their dominance over the price action and push the pair back down toward the psychologically important .7500 handle. Indicators are favoring the US dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillator give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls decided continued to push the pair higher only to stumble around the .7067, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. A break to the upside will most likely see the Kiwi longs break above the greenback defenses around .7122, a September 9 daily high, with a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair test the US dollar defenses around .7167, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally, at which point the US dollar longs will most likely launch a massive counterattack which will see the greenback bulls push the Kiwi back toward the psychologically important Indicators are supportive of the New Zealand dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the US dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.