Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
09/27/2009
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
Disappointing news on the economic front led to disappointing results in the stock market for the last three days of the previous week. New home sales and durable goods orders for August both missed expectations, and world bank leaders indicated that fewer U.S. dollars will be shoring up their economic stabilization plans. For the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both declined 2 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average declined 1.6 percent.
Next week, investors will be scrutinizing a number of reports for indications that economic recovery is real and that the market rally is likely to continue. The unemployment rate continues to be a primary concern because of its impact on other readings. The Non-Farm Payrolls data, to be released on Friday, is forecast to show a loss of 180,000 jobs for September, less severe than August’s figure of 216,000 losses. But initial jobless claims are expected to rise by 5,000 to 535,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to come in at 9.8 percent, compared to the previous reading of 9.7 percent.
On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Index of existing home prices from 20 housing markets is predicted to show an annualized price decrease of 14.2 percent for July, compared to a decrease of 15.4 percent for the same month in 2008. The Consumer Confidence Board’s final figure for September is expected to rise to 57, improving from August’s 54.1.
On Wednesday, final GDP data from the second quarter will be released. Early indications put growth at -1 percent, but analysts now seem to think the figure may be -1.1 percent. Investors will be nervous about any downward adjustment.
Thursday will bring data on construction spending for August, expected to show a decrease of .2 percent, the same as July’s decrease. Pending home sales for September are expected to show a 1 percent increase, substantially less than August’s increase of 3.2 percent. Also Thursday, U.S. auto sales figures for September are forecast to show the lowest figure of the calendar year.
Investors will also be interested in information coming from a number of meetings and speeches next week. On Tuesday, the FDIC board will begin to plan for building up its deposit insurance fund which, so far this year, has had to cover 95 failed banks. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the SEC will be considering additional regulations on short sales. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will address financial regulatory reform as he speaks on Thursday before the House Financial Service Committee.
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5 Stocks to Watch
We have 5 stocks this week near daily resistance looking to break to new recent highs. The 5 stocks to watch are Assurant, Inc. (AIZ), Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH), CenturyTel, Inc. (CTL), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), and Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH).
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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