Technical Overview

• Japanese Yen Continues To Retreat
• New Zealand Dollar Remains In Tight Range
• Swiss Franc Climbs Toward 1.3000

Trader's Outlook
It is a humbling experience to receive a humiliating lesson from the market, market is always willing to teach lessons, it depends on a trader how much he or she is willing to pay for education. Some people pay more some less, but everyone pays from novice trader to the most experienced, every one pays the market, it all depends how much one is willing to pay. I will pay as much as I deem necessary to find out if I'm right or wrong, because the market is never wrong, the trader is often is. The key to becoming successful trader is to listen and learn from the market, be patient, be humble, take every lesson as taken not given and always remember humility is the greatest lesson the market can teach anyone. 

1-Day Currency Pair Outlook

EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to run in circles as greenback bulls once again pushed the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. As the price action temporary pauses, a move to the upside will most likely see the single currency longs push the pair above the 1.2100 figure and with sustained momentum to the upside taking on the dollar defenses around 1.2200 handle. A further move to the upside will most likely see the euro longs take on the greenback defenses around 1.2245, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs were once again pounded into submission by the dollar bulls as they pushed the pair toward the new 2005 highs. As greenback continues to push the pair higher a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair break above the 115.76, a level marked by the September 4, 2003 daily low. A move higher will most likely see the pair head higher and test the yen defenses around 116.67, a level marked by the July 15, 2003 daily low. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the yen longs a chance to retaliate.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

GBP/USD - British pound bulls continued to retreat after the greenback longs managed to push the pair below the psychologically important 1.7500 handle. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids around 1.7393, a level marked by the October 12 daily low.  A reversal in fortune for the sterling longs likely see the pair head higher and take on the greenback defenses around 1.7820, a level marked by the August 31 daily low. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc longs fell to the dollar trap and instantly fell back toward the psychologically important 1.3000 handle. A break above the 1.3000 figure will most likely see the pair head higher and test the Swissie defenses around 1.3081, a level marked by the 2005 high. However a reversal form this trading range will most likely see the Swiss Franc longs push the pair toward the greenback defensive position at 1.2797, a level established by the October 17 daily low. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls retreated in force after the US dollar bulls pushed the pair back toward 1.1862, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally, which is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A next move to the upside most likely seeing the pair heading above the psychologically important 1.2000 handle and with sustained momentum the upside taking on the Loonie defenses around 1.2028, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally. A further collapse of the Canadian dollar defenses will most likely see the pair test the offers around 1.2159, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line; with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls failed to keep push back the greenback longs as the pair tumbled below the psychologically important .7500 handle. A sustained breakdown of the Aussies defenses will most likely see the US dollar longs make their way toward the .7457, an Aussie defensive position established by the August 31 daily low, with a further move to the downside most likely seeing the greenback longs push their way toward .7368, a level marked by the 2005 Low. However a reversal for these levels will most likely see the pair head above the .7500 and take on the US dollar defenses around.7555, a level marked by the October 5 daily low. Indicators are favoring the US dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line while neutral oscillator give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to keep the pair in an extremely tight trading range as Kiwi failed to break the greenback defenses around .6883, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. As the price action switches sides in favor of the US dollar longs, a move to the downside will most like see the greenback test the New Zealand dollar defenses at .6868, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. A further collapse of the Kiwi's defenses will most likely see the pair head toward the .6773, a New Zealand dollar defensive position established by the July 28 daily low. A further breakdown of the Kiwi's defenses most likely seeing the pair test the 2005 low at .6685. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
Key Levels & Technical Indicators

Daily Chart Analysis

Daily Chart - CADJPY remains confined to a large upward sloping channel that dominated the price action since May. An inability by the Canadian dollar longs to break above the recent consolidation range will most likely see the cross break below the channel's lower boundary and head for the 23.6 Fib.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.