Technical Overview

• Euro Bounces In Tight Range
• British Pound Collapses Toward 1.7600
• Canadian Dollar Fights Back

Trader's Outlook
Market remains in a sideways motion with neither side being a clear winner. Some people might disagree with me, but I believe to each its own as for me a price action that is stuck within a 200-pip range is an equivalent of market "noise", because this trader usually looks for trades that can net anywhere between 300-1300 pips. The key to being successful trader is to keep your profit targets in mind, in order to be profitable a trader must choose how much he or she is looking to make per trade and than risk accordingly. Never let the risk exceed the potential reward, while keeping realistic expectations. That is a key to successful money/risk/trade management.

1-Day Currency Pair Outlook

EUR/USD - Euro bulls went on an all out offensive against the attacking greenback longs and managed to push the pair toward the 1.2100 handle. As the price action temporary pauses, a move to the upside will most likely see the single currency longs push the pair above the 1.2100 figure and with sustained momentum to the upside taking on the dollar defenses around 1.2200 handle. A further move to the upside will most likely see the euro longs take on the greenback defenses around 1.2245, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs continued to tread sideways as the price action remained in a tight trading range after the pair established a new 2005 high above the psychologically important 115.00 handle. An attack by the Japanese yen longs will most likely see the pair head toward the 114.00 figure and with a break to the downside most likely seeing the pair test the greenback defenses around 113.37, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. A further collapse in the dollar defenses most likely seeing the pair test 112.51, a 23.6 Fib of the 104-16-115.10 USD rally. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

GBP/USD - British pound bulls failed to sustain their advance after the vanguard sterling longs failed to break above the 1.7733, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.9219-1.7284 USD rally. A second attempt at recapturing the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, will most likely see the pound longs take on the greenback defenses around 1.7820, a level marked by the August 31 daily low. A break above will most likely see the pair head toward the psychologically important 1.8000 figure, which is currently defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.9219-1.7284 USD rally at 1.8018. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc longs remained in a tight trading range as both sides remained on sidelines following a week of volatile price action. As both sides prepare for an upcoming skirmish, a move by Swissie bulls will most likely see the pair head toward the 1.2703, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.1492-1.3085 USD rally, which is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A further retreat by the greenback longs will most likely see the Swiss Franc longs push their way toward the psychologically important 1.2500 handle, a level that is heavily defended by the September 14 daily low at 1.2532. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
 
Key Levels & Technical Indicators

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls retaliated in force after the US dollar bulls failed to break above 1.1862, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally, which is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A next move to the upside most likely seeing the pair heading above the psychologically important 1.2000 handle and with sustained momentum the upside taking on the Loonie defenses around 1.2028, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally. A further collapse of the Canadian dollar defenses will most likely see the pair test the offers around 1.2159, a level established by the 50.0gbp Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line; with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls remained on a rollercoaster ride as the pair tested the bids and offers around the psychologically important .7500 handle. A sustained breakdown of the Aussies defenses will most likely see the US dollar longs make their way toward the .7457, an Aussie defensive position established by the August 31 daily low, with a further move to the downside most likely seeing the greenback longs push their way toward .7368, a level marked by the 2005 Low. A further collapse of the Aussie defenses will most likely see the pair head toward the .7286, a level marked by the September 30, 2004. Indicators are favoring the US dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line while neutral oscillator give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls once again managed to push the pair toward the .7000 handle in an attempt to break above the greenback defenses around .6883, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. As the price action switches sides in favor of the US dollar longs, a move to the downside will most like see the greenback test the New Zealand dollar defenses at .6868, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. A further collapse of the Kiwi's defenses will most likely see the pair head toward the .6773, a New Zealand dollar defensive position established by the July 28 daily low. A further breakdown of the Kiwi's defenses most likely seeing the pair test the 2005 low at .6685. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.