CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar bulls lost their upward momentum as they stumbled around the 98.00 handle, a level marked by the 1.382 Fib Extension of the Jun-Nov 2004 CAD rally. A reversal from these levels will most likely see the cross test the Loonie bids around 96.07 a level marked by the 20-day SMA, with subsequent move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and test the Canadian dollar defenses around 93.61, a level established by the 50-day SMA, thus seeing the CAD/JPY break below the psychologically important 95.00 handle. A further move to the downside will most likely see the Japanese yen longs push the cross toward 91.99, a Canadian dollar position established by the September 26 daily low. Indicators remain in favor of the Canadian dollar traders with both MACD and momentum indicator above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc longs tumbled like a rock after their momentum failed to break the Japanese yen defenses above the 89.50 mark. As yen bulls reassert their dominance and push the cross toward the 88.01, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 91.17-84.84 of the JPY rally, with a break below the channel's lower boundary most likely seeing the Japanese yen bulls push their way toward the 87.26, a 38.2 Fib of the 91.17-84.84 of the JPY rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see JPY bulls taking on the CHF defenses around 86.33, a Swiss Franc defensive line established by the 38.2 Fib of the 91.17-84.84 of the JPY rally, with a further move to the downside taking on the Swisse defenses around 85.55, a July 21 daily low. Indicators remain in favor of the Swiss Franc longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line while overbought Stochastic gives the Japanese yen longs a chance to retaliate.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to run in circles as the cross remained at multi-year highs, with Kiwi longs unable to break above the Japanese yen defenses at 79.79, a level established by the 61.8 Fib Extension of the Jan-May NZD rally. As Japanese yen bulls reestablish their dominance over the price action and push the cross lower, the next move to the downside will most likely see the NZDJPY test the New Zealand dollar defenses around 78.32, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside most likely seeing the yen longs push the cross toward 77.59, a 50-day SMA and with sustained momentum seeing the Kiwi longs try to mount a counteroffensive around 76.36, a level marked by the 200-day SMA. Indicators signal trending market conditions in favor of the New Zealand dollar with ADX above the key 25 mark at 33.70, signaling an existence of a mature trend, not a direction of one, while both momentum and MACD remain above the zero line. Oscillators are neutral thus adding to the outlook that the NZDJPY has reached the end of its long journey, and is getting ready to depart south.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Chart of the Moment
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.
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