The pattern developing in the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) since the November 21 low at 25.05 is a mess, which in and of itself indicates to me that it represents a countertrend rally within an as of yet incomplete larger downmove that should revisit and test the November low in the upcoming days/weeks. If such a scenario proves correct, then the February 10 recovery high at 31.69 ended the entire countertrend recovery, and the subsequent decline into today's low at 29.64 represents the initial decline of a new downleg. This afternoon's bounce could climb to 31.00, but from there the QQQQ should pivot to the downside into a powerful downleg that breaks 29.64, and then slices beneath the November-February support line, now at 29.20 -- on the way to at least 27.20-26.80 thereafter. Only a climb that hurdles last week's high at 31.69 will invalidate my preferred scenario.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.