Futures are telling us there will be more gains when the stock market opens Monday morning. This upside bias comes from the weekend’s government rescue plan of Citibank (C), which injected $20 billion in cash and guaranteed billions in assets. What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
Adrian Manz is traveling back from the Traders Expo and not available to contribute this week. You can still watch Dr. Manz’s recorded webcast from last week’s Las Vegas Traders Expo.
Click here to register for this free event.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
All three of the major averages once again ended in the negative column for the week. The late Friday afternoon rally in the market gave investors a brief respite from the constant selling pressure. The rally was caused by the announcement from the Obama camp of the naming of the Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner. Wall Street greeted the announcement with a 500 point rally. Even though the rally was a nice change of pace, I’m not sure that the Treasury Secretary announcement will be enough to sustain a tradable rally. The direction of the trade is being charted by one thing and that is fear. At the risk of repeating myself, fundamentals and technicals are irrelevant in this environment.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at a level not seen since 1997. Presently, there are 109 of the S&P 500 stocks trading in single digits and 17 trading less than $2. To make matters worse, all 239 sub-sectors are in negative territory, which is something I have never witnessed. I could go on and on illustrating how bad the economy has gotten, but it is becoming counter productive and frankly depressing.
So let’s look ahead to this week. The big number will be the Tuesday release of the third quarter GDP. The Street is looking for a negative .5% number. Also, there may be some reactions from the Consumer Confidence numbers. Last month’s reading of 38 was the lowest recording in history. The Street will also be looking for the same number. Any number below that may cause another round of selling.
I will be watching for a possible bounce in the tremendously oversold sectors. Semi-conductors may see some value investors testing the waters. I will look at the Memory Chip makers and Specialized Semiconductors.
The auto industry is hanging on by a string. There are announcements of mass layoffs by corporations daily. The economy is the only talk at the water coolers as everyone wonders how safe their job is. No one is spared from the CEO on down. As important is that is, it’s subordinate to friends and family. This week is a holiday-shortened week due to Thanksgiving. I urge everyone to take time to make sure that your family knows that it is your main priority. The last few months have seen an enormous change in the economy. Changes have come so swiftly and so dramatically that few have ever witnessed it first hand. I have been in the industry for over 20 years and the only thing that I have witnessed that is even close is the crash of 1987. This has been an emotional roller coaster in my household. Keeping perspective on what’s important has been a chore. My wife Anne and son Tommy helping me deal with the market turmoil has been a real blessing. With the Thanksgiving season upon us, I want to take this opportunity to thank my wife and son for all their unending support.
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
A trading axiom says that volatility equals opportunity, but obviously there are practical limits. Being long on Friday from the opening may have proven to be the ultimate correct position, but 31 points of heat in the futures were endured before the final 22-point gain was realized. Furthermore, from the 21.75 point higher opening, the Spoos dipped into negative territory three separate times.
Undoubtedly, some people are going to be interested in the Friday's reversal bottom. The Dow low was pierced, but once again, the aftermath was a rally well into the triple digits by the close. That of course means that people are boldly re-entering rather than saying "just get me out at any price!" I'd therefore have to conclude that we still haven't seen the lows. Markets have a way of wearing you out. In the 90's, floor traders far and wide were trying to short the ever rising stock market. Precious few had the same resolve or reserves once their ultimate dream market finally materialized.
The low is going to emerge something like this: we won't be particularly conscious of it as it's hitting. Five or more weeks after, as the market has been subtly and relentlessly creeping higher, we'll look back and say "Hey! Did we miss the low already?" And of course well before that juncture, we would have stopped tracking our IRAs or getting any kind of charge at all out of investing.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.