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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  11/16/2008 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

Wall Street is bracing for some really bad news from this week’s economic reports. Housing starts are expected to hit half-century lows. The Consumer Price Index is expected to fall 0.9% in October, the biggest one-month decline since the government began tracking the CPI in 1947. But what do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

Join Adrian Manz for a live webcast of his presentation at the Las Vegas Traders Expo.

Join professional equities trader and hedge fund manager Dr. Adrian Manz in a one-hour session discussing new patterns that provide consistent daytrading gains and money management techniques that hold those gains once they have been achieved. This session will provide a set of targeted trading tools you can implement immediately.

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Here’s the list of 9 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

AMB Property Corp (AMB), Public Storage (PSA), American Express (AXP) JC Penney (JCP), Kohl’s (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), FPL Group (FPL), ITC Holdings, (ITC), Idacorp (IDA)

Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader

Three times in four weeks we have seen relentless selling hit the markets just when the most trusted of technical indicators say that the bottom is in. Turn on CNBC any day of the week, and you will find the pundits explaining in as rational a tone as present circumstances might allow that the “worst is over.” They site sentiment, which is at record lows, as being a clear signal that the market will turn up. Stochastics are also signaling a definitive bottom. And don’t forget common sense -- the market is just plain oversold and cannot move any lower. All these tools rely on historical data for their ability to forecast future direction, and in the current climate, one thing that should be obvious to any student of the market is that history repeating does not seem to be part of the calculus driving price. If it were, we would have bottomed five weeks ago.

This time around, things are truly different. Huge companies are vanishing overnight, and governments everywhere have entered the bailout business. We are told that GM (GM) and Ford (F), whose combined value is now lower than that of parts retailer Autozone (AZO), need a huge cash infusion and that Chrysler is an almost certain goner if no one steps up to buy it. If that happens, the unraveling in the housing market will accelerate into a tail spin, as diminished property value is nothing in terms of default risk when compared to hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed autoworkers. Everything, it seems, points to more volatility and downside in the markets. Nothing would indicate that the worst is over, and if history is really going to be a guide, then what needs to happen is an honest assessment of where we are, what got us here, how to dig our way out, and how not to wind up here again. Until that happens, my focus will be on the downside in stocks the real estate, financial, retail and consumer sectors. This is where the tradeable price action has been for the past several months, and I suspect that the trend will continue through the rest of 2008.

In this week’s trading, I will watch AMB Property Corp (AMB) and Public Storage (PSA) in the diversified REIT’s, American Express (AXP) in the financials, and JC Penney (JCP), Kohl’s (KSS) and Best Buy (BBY) in the retailers for additional downside price action after any market rally that happens in the absence of significant positive news.

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

The broader averages once again ended the week in the red. Volatility is still hovering in the stratosphere. This was proven Thursday and Friday as the DJIA posted a 552 point up-day only to give the majority of it back on Friday. All of the 31 sectors posted a loss for the week. Real Estate, Specialty Retail Banking, and Electronics lead the way down, with all posting double digit losses. Emotion is still Wall Street’s rudder, as Thursday’s and Friday’s action will attest.

Investors are being reminded daily of the worldwide recession. There is daily news about stimulus rescue plans across the globe. Unfortunately, there seems to be no place to hide.

The Federal Reserve is dealing with a constantly changing diagnosis and remedy of the credit disaster. Also, what do we do with General Motors, Ford and Chrysler and should they have access to federal money? To say that we are in uncharted waters is an understatement. This is why the emotion and volatility has remained so high.

This week, retail companies will continue to be in the spotlight as several retailers will release quarterly earnings. On the economic front, the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index will be watched closely by traders to see if the weakness in commodity prices will show an easing in the inflation numbers. If new lows are recorded, I will be watching for defensive buys in Electric Utilities. Names like FPL Group (FPL), ITC Holdings, (ITC) and Idacorp (IDA) may present themselves as a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Join Adrian Manz for a live webcast of his presentation at the Las Vegas Traders Expo.

Join professional equities trader and hedge fund manager Dr. Adrian Manz in a one-hour session discussing new patterns that provide consistent daytrading gains and money management techniques that hold those gains once they have been achieved. This session will provide a set of targeted trading tools you can implement immediately.

Click here to register for this free event.

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

The multi-year lows were pierced in most of the futures markets on Thursday. The penetration was a seemed false, as the markets did a 180 to the upside into the close. Then Friday pretty much negated that move. I suspect that the low tick close will be promptly answered by a sharply higher Monday opening, and from there is anybody's guess. I think the downside test does strengthen my argument that the Dow lows are also in jeopardy and will probably give way before the end of the year.

To re-state my simplistic position: every new low seems to be immediately answered by panic buying. That suggests one of two things. One, either a lot of buying interest occurred at precisely the right times and a lot of people will prove to be brilliant timers. Or two, their re-entry will ultimately serve as more grist for the bear mill. Basic Trading 101 tells me the latter is far more likely. The bottom will be in place after the majority of bulls have thrown in the towel for the last time.

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.