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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  11/10/2008 | Stocks | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

Wall Street will be focusing on retail sales this week. The nation’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart (WMT) releases earnings on Thursday and the Commerce Department releases its October retail sales index on Friday. What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

90% Off Sale for Around the Horn Trading Plan Extended To Monday

On Thursday, we announced a 90% off promotion for Adrian Manz’s Around the Horn Trading Plan. However, soon after the announcement, the bridge between our credit card vendor and our e-commerce vendor broke down. There is nothing we at TraderInsight.com did to cause this technical error, and there is nothing we can do to fix it. Both of our vendors have been working over the weekend to fix the problem.

If you tried to place an order and it was rejected or you would still like to take advantage of the 90% off offer for one month, we have extended the special promotion through Monday. You can place your order here:

http://storesense2.megawebservers.com/HS2162/Detail.bok?no=28

If you have any questions about placing an order or are still having problem with the order going through, please call TraderInsight.com toll free at 877-624-5350 to place your order over the phone.

Here’s the list of 14 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

Peabody Energy (BTU), Lockheed Martin (LMT), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Roche (RHHBY), America’s Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), Delta Airlines (DAL), United (UAUA), US Airlines (LCC), Jetblue (JBLU), Amgen (AMGN), Celgene (CELG), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), Viropharma (VPHM)

Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader

The Obama effect sparked the largest one-day election rally ever last Tuesday before giving way to more of the same sobering economic pressure just a day later. But with the widespread excitement about a new administration in our rearview mirror, traders should begin to question what an Obama administration might mean in terms of market opportunities both on the long and short side. Some potential moves seem predictable, while others are tougher to ferret out. The obvious trading candidates for the near- and intermediate-term future will be the ones most affected by the espoused policies of the incoming administration. Energy, the financial sector, defense stocks and shares of health care sector participants seem to be the logical first target, and I will focus on these groups as a core basket moving forward until the market tells me to do otherwise.

Huge multinational drug companies took a beating after the election as England’s GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Switzerland’s Roche (RHHBY) and America’s Eli Lilly (LLY) and Pfizer (PFE) fell prey to rumors of restricted profits and, hence less incentive to do cutting-edge research under a nationalized health insurance plan. I would argue overreaction on two fronts here and look for a longer-term benefit to the industry’s key players’ valuations as a result. First of all, a look at the makeup of giant pharma reveals clearly that much, if not most, of the industry is headquartered overseas. And not just anywhere across the pond, but in countries with – you guessed it – national healthcare in place for many decades. The desire to innovate was not hindered there, as it was also not hindered in the U.S. when our first national healthcare system was put in place by Lyndon Johnson in 1965. I am referring of course to Medicare, which insures America’s elderly population and must be providing some kind of research incentive, as most every drug introduced today targets ailments experienced by the 65 plus crowd. I could write a dissertation on the many ways that first and second line drug companies will profit under a system of national health care, but suffice to say that I will be watching the sector closely in the coming months for indication of an oversold reversal.

In the energies, coal producers are a likely candidate for more downside as the incentive under the new administration will probably favor clean burning natural gas over Peabody Energy’s (BTU) soot billowing counterpart. In the defense sector, we saw the expected downward move on the news that the Democrats were coming to town, but the reaction looks overblown, and the likelihood of tradeable moves in the likes of Lockheed Martin (LMT) seem very promising. I will look for reaction moves in LMT and other sector favorites in the coming weeks. And that brings us to the financials, where rumor may be a relatively accurate predictor of market dynamics moving forward. I suspect that the new administration will raise the regulatory hurdle for just about every player in the sector, making upside potential here a tough call. The major players are beaten down to the point that a bounce seems probable in the short term, but long-run positive prospects are going to require getting the house in order, and that will be difficult and subject to much government meddling. I would venture to say that these stocks will face a long uphill battle in the months and years to come, but the deregulated environment that propelled their valuations over the past ten years was also the catalyst in wrecking the majority of these institutions, so perhaps the meddling will bring companies and investors together in a place in which the latter can actually look at filings and assume they are being presented with fact rather than fiction. This should lead to confidence and reinvestment over the long term and many tradeable opportunities in the process.

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

All three of the broader averages closed in the negative column last week. Some traders reported that it was due to the post Obama election win and equating it to an after party hang over. Others are pointing the finger at the hedge fund industry as they apparently are not finished unloading stocks at any upturn in the markets. Which ever the case, the markets were down last week. The ECB and Bank of England surprised the markets by lowering their interest rates. The Bank of England lowered by 150 basis points and the ECB by 50 basis points. This move continues to show the extent of the downturn in the world economy.

Not all is bad news though, as the continued injecting of cash into the U.S. system is narrowing the TED spread. This is a sign that liquidity is starting to make its way into the system. Hopefully, the next domino to fall is more liquidity into the consumers’ hands. Only then will the economy start to show signs of recovery. Another positive sign is Friday’s employment report. The report came in worse than expected posting the worst jobs number in 14 1/2 years. The positive part is that the markets ended the day in positive territory. As a student of market behavior, any time the markets move up on bad news and visa versa usually is a sign that a turn is likely.

Retailers will be the talk of the street next week as Retail Sales will be released on Friday. Also, there will be several large retailers posting quarterly earnings during the week. Names such as Macy’s, Nordstrom, Wal-Mart and JC Penney give investors a taste of the continued slowdown in the consumers spending habits.

There are a couple of areas in the market that aren’t being read their last rights. With crude oil prices teetering on the $60 per barrel mark, the airlines are starting to see some institutional support. It’s important to understand that the strength in the stock prices is due to the weakness in oil prices. It appears that a break in $60 per barrel will push airline prices to their August/September highs. I will be watching names such as Delta Airlines (DAL), United (UAUA), US Airlines (LCC), and Jetblue (JBLU). Another sector that has caught my eye is the Biotechs. Biotechs is one of those sectors that can totally ignore economic conditions and have their own bull market party and not invite any else. I’ll keep an eye on companies like Amgen (AMGN), Celgene (CELG), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), and Viropharma (VPHM). These stocks are stating to show signs of seeing institutional sponsorship.

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

We've just seen a week in which both sides of the bottom or no bottom debate struggled for supremacy. By the last bell, however, it was clear that despite the wild swings, we were merely continuing to trade inside the Dow range we've seen since October 8. That spans nearly 1000 points from roughly the 7800 to 8800 levels. I continue to believe the downside will be penetrated, probably in the near future if you'll forgive the non-precise observation. I'd put the chances of a new low before the end of the year at about 55 percent and the odds of having already seen the low at about 15 percent. As I've written, in order for the "bottom's in" scenario to be correct, an awful lot of near-perfect timing would have occurred by way too many people. That doesn't conform to what any trader knows to be true about markets.

For Monday, I expect continued upside action in the stock market. For the week, the S&P futures support-resistance levels are 897.00 and 1007.00 respectively. More likely than not, they will serve as barriers to existing trends rather than points at which ongoing momentum accelerates.

90% Off Sale for Around the Horn Trading Plan Extended To Monday

On Thursday, we announced a 90% off promotion for Adrian Manz’s Around the Horn Trading Plan. However, soon after the announcement, the bridge between our credit card vendor and our e-commerce vendor broke down. There is nothing we at TraderInsight.com did to cause this technical error, and there is nothing we can do to fix it. Both of our vendors have been working over the weekend to fix the problem.

If you tried to place an order and it was rejected or you would still like to take advantage of the 90% off offer for one month, we have extended the special promotion through Monday. You can place your order here.

If you have any questions about placing an order or are still having problem with the order going through, please call TraderInsight.com toll free at 877-624-5350 to place your order over the phone.

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.