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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  10/26/2008 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

The stock market is expecting more weak data and earnings this week, but the big event this week will be an expected interested rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday. Has the market bottomed? Are we still waiting for a shake-out? What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

Here’s the list of 4 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

Apple Computer (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), EMC (EMC)

Spend 10 days trading with Dr. Adrian Manz. Click here.

Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader

In the midst of the mayhem, the focus of the media and the financial community has been on the rollercoaster ride of the markets. It seems that no one is looking at the bigger picture. We can all agree that conventional wisdom dictates that markets are forward looking. They do not react to economic conditions; they anticipate them. The job of any trader worth his salt is to predict the mindset of other traders and investors going forward and to act based on those predictions. Perhaps legendary trader Bernard Baruch said it best when he stated “a speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs” and “successful speculation is about anticipating the anticipators.” Markets have historically done very well predicting what will come next, and if that holds true this time around, the recession we seem to be entering could be far worse than our political leaders and media would have us believe.

Let us assume for a moment that the markets are correct. What this would indicate is that “the greatest buying opportunity in history” being proselytized in the media may rather be the greatest campaign of misinformation in history. Of course the markets will move higher eventually. The question is not when this will occur, but rather from where. Buying now and praying that this is the bottom is not a solution for the successful speculator. Investors need to learn the tricks that traders use to earn a living and refocus their investment strategy in falling markets from growth to preservation of capital. Find me 10 investors who are complaining about the toll the markets are taking on their portfolios, and I will show you 10 investors who implemented no stop losses, never considered buying puts or selling covered calls, and probably spent the better part of 2008 stating that their stocks had fallen too much in price and “simply have to come back.” No one would ever think to manage any other business this way, yet life savings are gambled away in this manner every day. The buy-and-hold crowd is mystified when I tell them that they would be better referred to as having a buy-and-hope strategy in place, yet the market action of the past two decades would indicate that this is precisely the case.

Now the important part. How do we as traders capitalize on what is happening around us? This requires that we put on our economist hats and start thinking things through from another angle. If the negative economic outlook continues, it will be logical to assume that technology, which represents a significant expense to the economy, will suffer. The forecast for consumer spending in 2008 is bad, and 2009 is even worse. The US dollar is strengthening, making tech spending overseas less likely. The tech sector is down 45% this year, and growth has fallen below 5% for the first time in over 10 years. So the enemy to those inclined to focus their energy on correctly picking a bottom here seems to be celestial spin rotation. Gravity is pulling the sector and its issues lower, so intraday and short-term swing traders would probably be better served to focus on the short side and on playing the intermediate-term bounces rather than trying to catch a 90% move higher. With Apple Computer (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), EMC (EMC) and virtually everything in the correlated telecomm sector in play nearly every trading session, these are the places to look for intraday opportunity. I will spend this week looking for pullbacks in these and other tech symbols and taking the contra-pullback position just as the trend is reasserting itself. In other words, it will be business as usual around here as the market continues handing us significant profit opportunities nearly every day.

Spend 10 days trading with Dr. Adrian Manz. Click here.

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

The good news is that the liquidity problem that the U.S. and Europe were dealing with is now on the back burner. The bad news is that world-wide recession has taken its place. So now we see de-leveraging, hedge fund redemptions, unwinding of currency carry trades and a halt of the emerging markets economies leading the news. Talk about jumping from the frying pan into the fire.

The broader averages all closed in the red. The S&P 500 closed at the lowest level in 5 1/2 years. Volatility is hovering at levels higher and longer than ever experienced. Friday morning before the market opening, the U.S. equity futures were all limit down. The U.K. came in with weaker third quarter GDP and Japan was down almost 10% on Friday. The financial news worldwide is bleak and fear is the dominant theme. If there is a bright spot, crude prices have fallen over 50% since their $147 high posted this summer, and $41 a barrel in the last 30 days. Most of the other commodity markets performed basically the same by logging multi-month lows. Also, the TED spread is continuing to narrow, which shows that liquidity is starting to hit the markets.

This week should remain the same. News will be front and center. Wednesday is the FOMC meeting announcement and odds are favoring another 1/2 point cut in the Fed Funds rate. In fact, there is a 33% chance of a .75 basis point cut. With the dramatic falling of commodity prices, world governments are not as concerned with lowering interest rates causing inflation. Also, Thursday is the release of third quarter GDP. This will be strongly watched by the financial community. I will be watching for a pop next week in gold. If this week continues to bring negative news and pressure on worldwide equities, gold may start to get some play as a “safe haven.” Even though gold hasn’t had a run over the last few weeks, it hasn’t been hit like the rest of the sectors.

Trade pullbacks and high-momentum moves with Tom Incorvia. Click here.

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

Three days ago, I would have said that volatility feels like it's lessening a bit. I continue to think that we're closer to the end rather than the beginning of this crisis, but the crazy swings and point drops continue, so this still isn't anything like a normal environment. The engine has to be hysteria. If this were really supply and demand driven, could you possibly imagine the market being worth 3% more than the previous day, then 10% less, then 5% less, and then 3% more?

It would still be healthy to see a non-ambiguous washout -- something unprecedented like a quadruple-digit market drop where people are screaming that they've had enough and want out at any price. It would be painful, but maybe less torturous in the long run as it could well mark an ultimate bottom. The pain would be akin to a Band-aid being ripped off in one swift motion. There'd be blood in the streets and many people knocked out of the game, but again, that's generally what a healthy market turn looks like.

For Monday, my indicators are again bearish. Last Monday, the same prediction didn't pan out too well. I tend to subscribe to the theory of alternate market behavior. Wall Street pulled the market out of the fire last week, so I won't expect a repeat on Monday.

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.