Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
10/12/2008
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
Economic data to be released this week should be decidedly negative. Corporate earnings reports should miss targets, causing more volatility in the stock market. Wall Street’s only hope is that this weekend’s meeting of G7 leaders will help restore confidence to the markets. What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Here’s the list of 7 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:
Altera Corporation (ALTR), CSX Corporation (CSX), Genentech Corporation (DNA), Supervalu (SVU), eBay (EBAY), JP Morgan (JPM), St. Jude (STJ)
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
It is no secret that the stock market is in bad shape. The Friday low marked the worst beating taken by the broader market since the Great Depression. But even after all the bleeding, collapsing stock prices are not the real problem. Credit markets are in tatters with interbank loan rates at all-time highs, and the market for corporate paper all but nonexistent. Consumers are losing jobs and also creditworthiness. Factories are laying off in the face of low demand for big ticket items, such as automobiles. The Europeans look to blame America, and the best our shallow candidates for high office can come up with is that the whole mess was caused by greedy bankers on Wall Street. The world is losing confidence, and that is, perhaps, a much greater problem than the loss of liquidity. The coordinated global interest rate cuts last week were an important first step in restoring confidence, but I fear that the global leadership necessary to really fix the problem is missing, and that without it, the actions taken on October 8 will be as ineffective as the announcement of the bailout the week before.
As traders, we can profit in this environment, but only with a significant adjustment in what we consider acceptable volatility. I saw several seemingly solid setups last week that were spread from the entry point to the stop loss. In over a decade as a professional equity trader, I have never seen quotes like these, and I assume that we will see many more bizarre scenarios play out in the weeks to come. We can count on earnings season to create more volatility, as the firms reporting this week are very likely to miss or warn. That should create opportunity in the form of shorting the worst announcements and buying intraday reversals in the names that are closer to or even manage to exceed expectations.
Stocks to keep on the radar for earnings moves early this week include Altera Corporation (ALTR), CSX Corporation (CSX), Genentech Corporation (DNA), Supervalu (SVU), eBay (EBAY), JP Morgan (JPM), and St. Jude (STJ). For a complete list of the best earnings play candidates, check the earnings calendar at Traderinsight.com.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
Last week, I began my article with the statement that the market was ugly. Unfortunately the term “ugly” is a relative term and last week proved it. I’m sure no one needs to be reminded of how nasty the action was. Turn on any television station and there it was. In fact, I thought I saw a ticker running on MTV. I am being facetious, but the sell-off in the markets drew the focus of the world. Just try and walk by a newsstand and not see a “market crashes” headline.
Looking forward, there are two popular schools of thought. The first is that the worst is over and the government and high amounts of cash that are sitting on the sidelines will start pushing the market higher. This is the “it’s like 1987” scenario. The market sold off hard and fast. Afterwards, value buyers came in and supported the markets, followed by momentum traders pushing prices higher and roughly 14 months later the market was poised to make new highs. There are so many major differences in the systemic problems of today compared to the issues of 1987 that I don’t have the article space to scratch the surface.
The other school of thought is that we may be on the brink of a world-wide depression that has yet to be seen. Once again, the arguments are so obvious that they don’t need to be said. History has shown that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I know it’s easy to fall into the panic scenario the talking heads are telling you. I found myself a few times last week with a deer-in-the-headlight posture. Fortunately, experience prevailed and I watched the tape objectively to find clues of any buying. Friday’s impressive rally will be for nothing if the G7 meeting does not produce a specific, unified plan to supply liquidity to the credit markets. Hedging by any of the participants may be enough of a crack in the damn that the thumbs of the remaining members will not be enough to hold back the furry of sellers and mutual fund redemptions.
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
At the risk of seeming immodest, I must reference my October 10 post for TigerSharkTrading.com. Single-day events are pretty much telling the market's story these days, and I think the near future is going to be shaped by what happens in and around this weekend.
On the late afternoon of October 9, I said an evening melt was probable, particularly if the Asian market crashed in response to our Thursday 678 point Dow drop. One of the things I considered was that the overnight markets had traded sharply higher for at least a portion of the preceding two evenings. On the heels of yet another washout, I didn't imagine such a thing could happen a third time, so I did start selling S&P’s leading into Thursday's close. I took an average profit of about 25 points.
I said that the melt would continue into Friday and that Monday would be even more harrowing. I also opined that the ultimate intra-day low would occur on Tuesday, but that the close would be sharply higher. What kind of intricate lab materials, charts, and graphs am I using? Just one simple model: the days leading into and out of Black Monday, October 19, 1987. You can get the full text by checking the posting for October 10, but I'll encapsulate what's happened so far.
As with the week preceding Black Monday, each day saw unprecedented huge daily ranges, with most culminating in equally historic point drops. That Friday was the first time the Dow closed more than 100 points down. Black Monday was a 508 point drop, the biggest percentage loss to date. Tuesday saw a breathtaking higher gap opening followed by the ultimate market low and finally, a sharply higher close. That Tuesday low marked the ultimate low that hasn't been seen since.
This past Thursday's scenario played out according to Hoyle. The Nikkei was down nearly 10 percent and we responded by dropping over 40 S&P points before the official opening. We saw an intraday decline of more than 700 Dow points, which certainly was dovetailing with my expectations. The late rally, of course, was where we deviated from Black Friday, although interestingly, the Dow's decline between the two days was within 25 points. Still, it was a significant break from the model, which leaves us with the question of what happens Monday. I think the odds of a sharply lower close are still greater than 50 percent. I think the odds of an intraday tanking of at least 300 points is probably closer to 80 percent. Regardless of how high or low the market opens Monday morning, I think it's near inevitable that the depths will be plumbed sometime. If the close is in fact sharply lower, if Tuesday's low takes out Monday's and then closes higher, you've got a near perfect Black Monday recreation. The good news is that the washout could then well be behind us.
Of course, markets rarely play out in a way that rewards expectations. There should be some zigs and zags away from the ultimate model. I do, however, expect a harrowing point decline early in the week and a rally mid-to-late week. In other words, I expect a walk through the Dark Wood followed by the first positive weekly Dow close since the week ending September 12. And then, maybe a return to some semblance of "normal."
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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