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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  09/29/2008 | Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

Market direction is still uncertain for Monday.  Congress has just finalized the bailout agreement, but investors will need to analyze the final plan before giving the stock market a lift.  Plus, there’s still worry that another major bank will go under, with Wachovia (WB) the odds-on favorite.  What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

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Here’s the list of 12 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

Citibank (CIT), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Beazer (BZH), Centex (CTX), Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), Pulte (PHM), Zion Bancorporation (ZION), PacWest (PACX), BancorpSouth (BXS), and Whitney Holdings (WTNY)

Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader

Most of us enjoy watching a ballgame or two on Sunday afternoon.  This weekend is no different, with the notable exception being that we have the opportunity to watch the highest stakes game of the century unfold as the team makes a panicked effort to recover the fourth and goal fumble in the end zone.  I am, of course speaking euphemistically, but at this point, cheering on the members of our government has become a bit like being a Browns or Raiders fan.  No matter how well things seem to be shaping up, there almost always seems to be room for a disaster.   I watched as our President attempted to shed light on the financial mess in the country, and waited for the coach to explain to the fans that it is all pretty simple.  Ten years ago, the previous coach, Bill Clinton, had a dream that home ownership should be an easier goal to attain.  Lending standards should be loosened, and as banks considered innovative ways to provide “sub-prime” financing to less-than-perfect applicants, the regulators would keep things in check and make sure that abuses did not roil the landscape.  Of course, that particular coach was working under the assumption that the dynamics of the team were not going to change too much.  Democratic Party rule is pretty hands on, and the regulatory environment under such an administration is, by design, more restrictive than under the Republican counterpart.  Mr. Clinton’s folly was to assume that the balance of power would remain the same and that no one would drop the ball. 

Things did change, however, and under the new Republican administration the regulatory burden was eased.  Aspiring homeowners, after all, are not the only ones who deserve opportunity.  Business owners should also have the opportunity to prosper.  The easing of regulation would be kept in check by the cost of borrowing money and the good judgment of the players in conducting business activities.  Then came September 11, 2001, and the ensuing threat of a collapsing economy.  The response of the government’s quarterback, Fed Chairman Greenspan, was to lower interest rates to make the capital lending environment easier to navigate.  That play eased pressures and allowed the economy to quickly rebound.  Not to be outdone, the special teams folks at the Securities and Exchange Commission decided to throw a final trick play onto the field and eased margin requirements, making it easier for those in the know to leverage into huge positions and repackage all the business and lending activities that were made so simple in the previous quarters of play.  Now we know what tends to happen when everyone on the team thinks things are easy, but we were still unwilling to listen to the admonitions of legions of proselytizers.  As things started to unwind, we found out that many of the loans that were made were not just sub-prime, but were in fact basically junk status.  It seemed that the goal of those empowered to make the easy loans was to issue as many as possible and to line their own pockets in the process -- imagine that.  Those who repackaged and sold the loans made no effort to research or disclose this in their bond offerings.  Aunt Fannie and Uncle Freddie seemed equally consumed by greed and laziness.  And the bankers who invest in such things decided that the opportunity for profit was too great to ignore.  So fully leveraged positions became the standard operating procedure, and when the whole mess started to unravel, no one noticed that we no longer had possession of the ball.

So that’s where we stand today.  We are all hoping that the government plan to rescue us will score a touchdown and not leave us with a Hail Mary pass into the bleachers.  It seems promising at this point, but astute readers will surely make mental note of the propensity of the team in the Capitol to screw it all up.  If things do go well, we will look for the Asian markets to recover in early trading, and for the stronger financial issues in this country to offer additional upside and good intraday trading opportunities throughout the week.  I will watch shares of Citibank (CIT), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) in every session.  Pullbacks after any strong surge will be the cue to look for entries.  Volatility is probably going to be extreme, so stops will be wide and position size reduced, but all-in-all trading should be decent most of the September 29 week.  If things really shape up, we will also look to the homebuilders for long and short entries, as Beazer (BZH), Centex (CTX), Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM) will almost certainly provide many substantial intraday swings.

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

Only 16 of the 239 sub-industry groups ended in the black last week.  The ones that did find support had a defensive theme to them.  With the current news events, I’m sure that’s no big surprise to anyone.

As a market technician, I am more interested in the reaction to a news event than the actual news event.  Whether an economic number comes in better or worse that expected is secondary to the reaction to the number.  Disciplined market technicians do not predict, but rather react.  We are taught to objectively view the action without preconceived believe of direction.  With that in mind, how do we trade the current environment?  Is there something that is moving against the market trend that will provide a low risk trade? 

One area has shown abnormal strength in the market.  The regional banks have popped up on my radar screen for strong performance and volume.  Specifically, the Southeast and Pacific banks have seen strong institutional support.  I’ll be watching for continued buying in Zion Bancorporation (ZION), PacWest (PACX), BancorpSouth (BXS), and Whitney Holdings (WTNY).

How to Avoid Coming Up Short in Retirement

They say that retirement can be the best time of your life. And it can be if you have enough money to enjoy it. If you have a $500,000 portfolio, you should download "The 15-Minute Retirement Plan." It’s loaded with useful information that can help you plan for a comfortable, secure retirement.

Click here to download your report!

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

I love last week's comment by Adrian Manz that he never thought his hedge fund competition would be from the U.S. government.  That says it all.  "Free markets for free men" now literally come down to the whims of a few individuals in Washington and rolls of the dice.  It's not that I don't agree intervention is necessary at present.  I just can't help but marvel at the years and years of corruption and bungling that got us here.

Trading has now become like throwing a dart at a wall.  The consequences are now pretty much an all-or-nothing proposition, and that doesn't bode well the playing field so many of us have come to count on for our livelihoods.  The only consolation I can find is that this state is not likely to last all that long.

At present, as I write this, there is no credit crisis agreement.  If the situation stays this way into Monday, we should see a huge market melt.  In the more likely event that something is resolved, the outcome won't be as easily ascertained or as definitive.  There should be a rally, but how large will obviously depend on how the contents of the accord are digested.

My current bet going into the coming week is that the market will rise.  (Too late for me or anyone else to change our minds now.)  The story should be all but over before the official market opening.  From there, the downside will probably be vulnerable.  The likelihood and magnitude of the sell-off should be proportionate to how huge an up gap we'll see by the opening.  If you get one of those euphoric 200 point-plus rocket shots, watch out.  The first signs of softening will probably be the mere start of a day-long avalanche.  The rest of the week should see somewhat less dramatic backing and filling as more news emerges and opinions continue to evolve and mutate.

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.