Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
09/21/2008
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Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
After a wild week and record government bailout, everyone is asking the same questions. Has the stock market finally hit a bottom? Will the credit markets loosen? Will normal volatility return? What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
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Here’s the list of 3 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:
Bank of New York (BK), State Street (STT), Goldman Sachs (GS)
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
If someone had asked me a week ago who my competition in the hedge fund world was going to be, I doubt that I would have guessed the federal government. But that seems to be just the business Uncle Sam had in mind when the decisions of the past week were made. With or without the bailout, credit markets are about to get much tighter and the effect on equities, though yet to be seen, will surely result in some interesting moves particularly among the financial sector stocks.
As it stands right now, Monday promises to be another short squeeze. Traders will be well served to look for stocks gapping significantly higher -- two standard deviations of true range would be a good place to start -- after having put in a recent 52-week low. Those who were unfortunate enough to believe the sky was falling last week will look to these setups as value, while many other speculators will look to unwind shorts. Either way, since the financial stocks cannot be shorted until October 2, their options values and volatility are going to be nothing short of indiscernible, and trades on the long side of the market in some of the strong but devalued names may make for some quick and tidy profits.
Since volatility will remain high, a modicum of common sense needs to be applied, but Bank of New York (BK) and State Street (STT) look very interesting early in the week. Goldman Sachs (GS) promises to offer wide swings all week, but that stock’s price tag can leave even the most battle hardened among us a feeling a little queasy in the 60 cent spread.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
First and foremost, I will wait for the beginning of the week to get a clue on what may be ready to unfold. I will not be investing in the financial services sector looking for a bottom. I have been a trader since 1987, and I could tell you that ripples of what happened last week are still being digested by the institutions. A dramatic move, one way or another, is still unfortunately likely. I have fielded several calls and e-mails asking if this is this the bottom. No one is good enough to answer that question. I know the temptation is for traders to want to catch that proverbial falling knife, but the risks right now are too large. The best advice I could give at this time is to relax and not force the issue. As news continues to hit the tape, institutions across the world are ready to buy with reckless abandoned or dump large portions of their portfolios at a moment’s notice. Getting caught on the wrong side of this market could leave a long lasting scare.
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Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
The whole world seems to be singing “we’re out of the woods, we’re out of the dark, we’re out of the night.” The contrarian in me says “we’ll see.” I suppose it’s good that the government is seriously trying to provide the desperately needed liquidity if nothing else. It beats a Herbert Hoover do-nothing approach. I won’t even grouse too much about the short sale ban, although like most traders, I regard the measure as uncalled for and ridiculous. Trading 101, as I understand it, says that markets ultimately go where they were determined to go. Buyers and sellers find each other at appropriate middle ground. Anyone trying to muscle the market in a given direction will be met by a raft of bargain hunters on the other side. Why do we always get cute with sell-side jerry-rigging? If it’s such a good idea to not allow naked shorts, then why don’t we always have that mechanism in place? Why don’t we make a rule to not allow selling until the market trades higher on the week or not allow any kind of selling on Mondays? Heck, let's just print enough new money to fill everybody's mailbox.
I think it’s significant that the markets closed so far down from their openings. One of the most basic yet effective biases out there is to sell any big gap opening if the leap was caused by a single news event. Traders inevitably become over-exuberant. Note that the Dow couldn’t finish up on the week despite being in higher territory for much of the day.
Maybe this intervention will be a welcome shot in the arm, but we can’t lose sight of the fact that the “cure” is so dramatic because the underlying ills are also. They just don’t vanish in a puff of smoke -- good and bad forces alike remain out there. The only thing I believe we can confidently predict for the near term is continued volatility.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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