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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  09/15/2008 | Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

Should you be buying stocks right now? Forbes columnist Ken Fisher tells you where he thinks the market is headed. Plus, which stock market factors YOU need to watch out for now! Find out what one of America's most respected financial experts has to say. Click here to download your report!

It’s Sunday evening and Lehman Brothers (LEH) still doesn’t have a buyer.  Wall Street is hanging on this news.  Bad news for Lehman will likely be bad news for the stock market.  The investment banks will especially be the focus this week, as Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Lehman Brothers are scheduled to post quarterly results.  What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

Here’s the list of 8 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

Lehman Brothers (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS), Beazer Homes (BZH), Centex (CTX), Lennar (LEN), Pulte (PHM), Baker Hughes International (BHI)

Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader

If last week’s trading is any indication, then the balance of 2008 will be characterized by wide choppy swings and little by way of constructive results.  The indices have been as volatile as I can remember, yet the net result for the past quarter is effectively zero.  Some of the volatility has been tradeable, and some of it has been the stuff nightmares are made of.  All-in-all though we continue to be inundated by news (mostly of the bad variety), and the expectation that Uncle Sam will need to break out the credit card once again to save whatever wayward nephew or niece has fallen on the worst of times this week.  Trouble, it seems, is very easy to find these days.  This week’s problem children are once again financials.  Lehman (LEH) could wind up doing a vanishing act, and Washington Mutual (WAMU) may very well stretch the FDIC further than even the Fed could imagine.

We have consistently bet against Lehman in the weekly market outlook, and hate mail aside, the shorts (when Lehman was still shortable) were very profitable.  Those of you who opened and maintained short swing positions over the past several months are to be congratulated for your recognition of what was about to happen.  All that being said, I suspect that this will be the week that Lehman becomes a part of something else for the first time since being spun off by American Express in 1994, and with its stock price trading at levels normally reserved for puts and calls, the equity has effectively become a never expiring call option.  Of course the same could have been said for Bear Stearns and Enron, so cheap may not be the equivalent of value here.  I would not suggest looking for a Bear Stearns-style bailout on this one, as everyone involved seems quite content to watch Lehman sink.  In the absence of a weekend deal, I will look for the intraday rumor mill to generate opportunities in LEH, and its sector counterparts Merrill Lynch (MER) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

Also on my watch list this week are homebuilders Beazer Homes (BZH), Centex (CTX), Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM).  Oil service should also be in play, with Baker Hughes International (BHI) looking particularly interesting on the heels of the wide range move lower last week. 

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

Tom Incorvia is still on vacation this week. Show your support for the website and newsletter by downloading a free stock market outlook from this week’s sponsor.

Should you be buying stocks right now? Forbes columnist Ken Fisher tells you where he thinks the market is headed. Plus, which stock market factors YOU need to watch out for now! Find out what one of America's most respected financial experts has to say. Click here to download your report!

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

The Dow cash index finished the week higher for the first time in five weeks.  The bears can now let out their "thank God that's over" sigh of relief.  Will they be right in assuming the major trend can now resume?  Maybe not.  It's starting to strike me that the weekly Dow bar chart is looking like it might have made a near-term bottom.  The week ending July 18 featured the recent major low, but also closed higher than the previous week's high in classic key reversal fashion.  From there, downside spikes approached the area, but continued to fall short of it.

Daily indicators that I follow are making a persuasive argument for a lower Monday.  That would certainly act as a release valve of sorts.  The last two trading days saw the Dow rally off triple-digit losses to unlikely strong closes.  It's usually prudent to bet against the hat trick.  The best rally scenario would be off a stronger opening, while a weaker open would strengthen my resolve to sell.  In other words, Monday might be one of those rare recent days were it will pay to go with the momentum.

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.