Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
09/7/2008
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Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
Should you be buying stocks right now? Forbes columnist Ken Fisher tells you where he thinks the market is headed. Plus, which stock market factors YOU need to watch out for now! Find out what one of America's most respected financial experts has to say. Click here to download your report!
After The US government finally took control of mortgage giants Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) today. Wall Street has been expecting this, so we could actually see a positive turn in the stock market, as well as the credit markets. Improving credit markets will be important as evidence mounts of a slowdown in consumer spending. But do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com agree?
Here’s the list of 11 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:
Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae (FNM), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), Toll Brothers (TOL), Pulte Homes Inc (PHM), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), Standard Pacific (SPF), Lennar Corp (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI), Ryland (RYL)
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
This promises to be an interesting week, as the decline in payrolls reported by the Department of Labor and the mortgage delinquency numbers reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association point to a continued unraveling of the economy rather than the bottoming action previously anticipated. With delinquency rates rising and employment rates falling, it is evident that the short side of the market has real profit potential going forward into the election cycle. Additional poor economic reports will almost certainly raise concerns about decreased consumption, which will in turn lead to contracted manufacturing, additional job losses and more mortgage meltdowns. The compromised financial infrastructure will almost certainly suffer significant additional setbacks if the economic slowdown continues, with banks and brokers vulnerable going forward.
The past holiday-shortened week was a few days too long for the major averages. Another broad market freefall did significant damage, leaving the Dow just above July support. With the Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) bailouts, we could see more downward pressure and another test of July support this week. I will watch both Fannie and Freddie, as well as the brokers, particularly Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Merrill Lynch (MER), for intraday trading opportunities. The other likely candidates for downside action on the heels of the new data are the homebuilders. Toll Brothers (TOL), Pulte Homes Inc (PHM), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), Standard Pacific (SPF), Lennar Corp (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI), and Ryland (RYL) should be on every trader’s watch list for intraday quick-turn opportunities.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
Tom Incorvia is on vacation this week. Show your support for the website and newsletter by downloading a free stock market outlook from this week’s sponsor.
Should you be buying stocks right now? Forbes columnist Ken Fisher tells you where he thinks the market is headed. Plus, which stock market factors YOU need to watch out for now! Find out what one of America's most respected financial experts has to say. Click here to download your report!
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
The shortened week was certainly no argument that we're approaching a light at the end of the tunnel. This coming week could be a reprieve, however, at least initially. I don't focus much on market fundamentals and they play no part in my actual trading strategies, but as I sit here this weekend, I can't help but wonder about the latest government decision to bail out Freddie and Fannie. I've gotten vastly different scenarios from trading associates on how that should impact the stock market on Monday. Either it will be bullish because of the perception the government is willing to aggressively fight any market obstacles, which should be especially attractive to foreign investors, or it will be bad news for Americans because we're ultimately going to be footing the bill.
Again, I'm not a fundamentalist, but here's the scenario I can read the best based on my analysis. If the stock market opens sharply higher on Monday, that's probably a selling opportunity. Give it a few minutes to see that it's not going to keep inching higher like we witnessed in late-Friday's action. After you see some stability within the first few minutes, the low becomes a crucial support. If the low is taken out, chances are it will become an example of failed market momentum following an extreme gap off significant fundamental news.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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