OK...Where to now? My work argues that the upmove from yesterday's low in the E-mini S&P at 1230.75 to this morning's high at 1240.75 is the first upmove of a new upleg that will climb to test the recent high at 1251 on the way to test the July 29 high at 1255.25. However, if the index fails on the next attempt to hurdle 1241-1242, and then pivots to the downside, at that point I will begin to have my doubts about my current scenario. Purely from a technical perspective, only a break below 1230.75 (yesterday's low) will confirm that the bears are in control of near-term market direction (and I will be pulling the rest of my hair out of my head by then). For now, we remain long.

MJP 09/16/05

Mike Paulenoff is a 25-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his E-mini S&P and QQQQ technical analysis and trading alerts. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a FREE 30-Day Trial to his E-Mini/Index Futures diary, or try his QQQ Trading Diary.