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Australian Dollar Crosses Consolidate Ahead Volatility
By Jamie Saettele | Published  09/14/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Australian Dollar Crosses Consolidate Ahead Volatility
  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/JPY
  3. AUD/NZD

AUD/CAD - Canadian dollar longs remained opposed to the Australian dollar bulls as both sides engaged each other in a starring contest over who will control the price action after the cross breaks the narrow consolidation range. A move by the Canadian dollar longs will most likely see the cross head toward the .9100 handle, a break below will most likely see the Canadian dollar longs gather enough momentum and breakthrough the .9046, a 78.6 Fib of the .8825-.9584 Australian dollar rally. A break in Aussie defenses will most likely see the CAD retake the psychologically important .9000 figure and aim for .8885, next line of Aussie defenses comprised by the August 31 daily low. Indicators remain in favor of CAD longs with both MACD and momentum indicator below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

AUD/JPY - Japanese yen bulls retreated under the onslaught of the Australian dollar longs with the battle currently heating up around the psychologically important 85.00 figure. A successful defense of the current price level by the Japanese yen longs will most likely see the cross retreat toward 84.31, a first line of Australian dollar defenses established by the 20-day SMA. A further breakdown will most likely see the yen bulls force their way toward 83.56, an Aussie line of defense established by the 23.6 Fib of the 74.23 -86.40 AUD rally thus establishing a Head and Shoulder reversal pattern. A subsequent move below the 83.00 handle will most likely see the cross break the channel's lower boundary and the neck line, which might see the Aussie longs retreat below the 200-day SMA at 82.36. Indicators are mixed with momentum indicator above the zero line, while MACD sloping upward below the zero line, with Stochastic treading above the overbought line, thus giving further support to the yen longs.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

AUD/NZD - New Zealand dollar bulls remained opposed to the Australian dollar longs as the launch by the Aussie bulls was quickly aborted by the Kiwi bulls, with the cross stalling around 1.0950 range, stopped in its tracks by the defensive positions at 1.0936, comprised of August 16 daily high. Another attempt at the glory by the Australian dollar longs will most likely see the AUD/NZD rocket passed 1.0936 and head straight for the psychologically important 1.1000 handle and the key 38.2 Fib of the 1.0499-1.1784 NZD rally. A sustained momentum will most likely see Aussie longs push the Kiwi bulls above the 1.1065, a level marked by the July 18 daily spike high. Indicators remain in favor of the New Zealand dollar bulls, with MACD below the zero line diverging from the momentum indicator above the zero line, while ADX fell to 27.2, signaling weakening trend.  Stochastic became overbought thus giving Kiwi longs a chance to recover.

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.