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US Dollar Softens As Manufacturing Activity Gives Out
By Jamie Saettele | Published  05/15/2008 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Softens As Manufacturing Activity Gives Out

Negative economic data spurred mix trading for the US Dollar, but continued to rack up gains against the low yielding Swiss franc – fueled by a rise in risk appetite. As a result, the commodity currencies soaked in the biggest gains against the greenback, and was followed by the Yen as the pair dipped to 104.7. Against the European currencies, the US dollar continued to climb against the Euro as the pair traded at 1.948, but depreciated against the British pound as the pair rose to 1.948.

Fresh economic data heightened the downside growth risks for the US economy as the Net TIC Flows index plunged to -$48.2B from $48.9B, with Initial Jobless Claims adding to the mix as it rose to 371K from 365K for the week ending May 10th. Manufacturing activity continued to contract as domestic demands wavered, with the Empire Manufacturing index falling for the sixth consecutive month to -3.2 from 0.6. However, the Philadelphia Fed index inched higher to -15.6 from -24.9, but remains in a state of contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Industrial Production also dampened the growth outlook as it plunged to -0.7 percent from 0.2 percent, which was the biggest decline since Hurricane Katrina.

The stock markets continued to advance as CBS Corp opted to buy CNet Networks for $1.8B in cash, which led investors to brush off the slew of negative data. As a result, the DJIA picked up 94.28 points to hold off at 12,992.66, with 22 of the 30 components advancing. The broader S&P500 rose 14.91 points to 1,423.57 points to touch a four month high, with 195 stocks advancing to a new 52 week high.

Amid the rise in stock prices, demands for US Treasuries picked up as well as falling domestic demands paired with rising unemployment drove risk adverse investors into the safe have of risk free bonds. As a result, the benchmark 10-Year yield dropped to 3.822 percent from 3.921 percent, with the 2-Year yield following as it plunged to 2.437 percent from 2.528 percent.

Looking ahead, the Housing Starts and Building Permits indices will kick off the morning at 12:30 GMT, and is expected to inch lower as the housing market remains under considerable amounts of stress. The U. of Michigan Confidence index will follow as 14:00 GMT, and is expected to drop to a 26 year low as consumers continue to face a weakening labor market, paired with rising food and energy costs.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.