Australian Dollar Crosses:

1. AUD/CAD
2. AUD/JPY
3. AUD/NZD

AUD/CAD - Canadian dollar longs continued to pound the Australian dollar defenses after the cross gave up the psychologically important .9000 handle during the beginning of the week. As the price action remains in favor of the Loonie longs, Canadian dollar bulls will most likely push the cross toward the .8825, a low the AUD/CAD has not seen since September of 2004. A break in the Australian dollar defenses will most likely see the Loonie bulls advance toward the .8695, a heavily defended area marked by the key 61.8 Fib of the .7550-1.0550 multi-year Australian dollar rally, a breakdown below the level of such magnitude will most likely open the psychologically important .8500 figure as a potential target for the Canadian dollar longs. Indicators remain in favor of CAD longs with both MACD and momentum indicator below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic raises cautionary flag to the Loonie longs, however most prolonged moves occurred after the Stochstic became oversold as ADX has climbed above 20, signaling a weak trend.  

Key Levels, Technical Indicators & Carry Trade

AUD/JPY - Japanese yen bulls remained mesmerized by the progress the cross has made after establishing multi-year highs around 86.43 and swiftly gave up ground to the marauding yen longs. As cross remains confined to an upward sloping channel, any attempts by the Australian dollar longs to reestablish their dominance will most likely see Japanese yen bulls muster their forces together and offers the cross around the 84.17 line, marked by the 50-day SMA, thus establishing a Head and Shoulder reversal pattern. A subsequent move below the 83.00 handle will most likely see the cross break the channel's lower boundary and the neck line, which might see the Aussie longs retreat below the 200-day SMA at 82.13 and a key 38.2 Fib of the 74.23 -86.40 AUD rally. Indicators remain in favor of the Japanese Yen longs with both MACD and momentum indicators below the zero line, while rising ADX above 20 signals weak trend, which is currently being dominated by the Japanese yen longs.

Key Levels, Technical Indicators & Carry Trade

AUD/NZD - New Zealand dollar bulls remained on a war path against its antipodean neighbor with Australian dollar trying to defend the 200-day SMA at 1.0829. As the cross remains confined to a narrow downward sloping channel, Kiwi longs will most likely try to resume their advance against the Aussie position and push the cross toward the 1.0779, a level marked by the April 27 daily spike high. A sustained momentum on the part of the New Zealand Dollar longs will most likely see the AUD/NZD head lower toward the next round on Australian dollar defenses at 1.0711, established by the June 8 daily low. Indicators remain in favor of the New Zealand dollar bulls, with both MACD and momentum indicator below the zero line and ADX above 25 at 31.86, signaling trending market conditions. 

Key Levels, Technical Indicators & Carry Trade

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.