Let's have a look at the near-term pattern development in the XHB (Homebuilders ETF), which is being led by components PHM, HOV, DRI, HD, KBH, all of which have very dynamic chart formation after an entire year (or more) of relentless weakness.

The enclosed 4-hour chart is extremely promising from a technical perspective. Not only did the XHB exhibit very bullish form in its original advance from 15.07 (1/10) to 22.05 (1/29), the 1 1/2-session pullback into yesterday's late low at 19.55 also has the "right look" of a completed minor correction prior to the emergence of a new, powerful upleg. Today's action shows that the price structure is flirting with breaking above 3-month resistance at 22.00, which when completed should trigger upside continuation to 24.50/90 thereafter. Although I bought into the breakout, which may prove frustrating if follow-through does not occur today, I would rather be long than out attempting to fine-tune the next dip.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.