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Euro Topping Against Commodity Currencies
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/4014/1/Euro-Topping-Against-Commodity-Currencies/Page1.html
By Jamie Saettele
Published on 05/19/2006
 
Currency technical analyst Jamie Saettele analyzes the euro against currency from Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

Euro Topping Against Commodity Currencies

EUR/AUD – The euro has gained against the Aussie over the last week, before being resisted by the 61.8% fibo of 1.7111-1.6361 at 1.6828.  The pair is trading in a small consolidation pattern on the hourly chart between 1.6685 and 1.6835.  With the recent major and minor trends both up, the path of least resistance is up and a break above consolidation would target the 78.6% fibo of the 1.7111-1.6361 decline at 1.6950.  Support is at the lower end of the mentioned corrective pattern.  Daily oscillators favor longs as evidenced by increasing values.

EUR/CAD – The hourly chart of EUR/CAD shows a completed 5 wave sequence at the 1.4417 high of today, which is right at the 161.8% fibo extension of 1.4162-1.3910 (1.3991+(1.618*(1.4162-1.3910)) = 1.4405).  Such Fibonacci relationships often mark the end of moves.  If this holds up, then we are currently trading in a corrective pattern that could be choppy for a while before bears see any significant declines.  Support is at the 23.6% and 38.2% fibos of 1.3910-1.4417 at 1.4298 and 1.4224.  Resistance going forward is at the 5/15 high at 1.4377 and tonight’s high at 1.4417.  Negative divergence with CCI on the daily also suggests weakness going forward.

EUR/NZD – The euro gained against the Kiwi last week and trades in a 5th wave of a bull rally around 2.0600.  Immediate resistance stems from the 5/15 high at 2.0834.  The next area of resistance can be gauged by taking the length of wave 1 and adding it to the beginning of wave 5 to approximate an end to the 5 wave rally (waves 5 and 1 are often the same length or close to it when there is a 3rd wave extension).  This would place the resistance at 2.1184.  However, RSI, MACD and momentum all show negative divergence with price on the daily chart, giving scope to a decline.  Support is at the 4/4 high of 2.0226 followed by the 23.6% fibo of 1.6320-2.0831 at 1.9773. 

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.