Let's be aware that the "Twins" are acting in unison again, which warns us to watch the Euro/US Dollar like a hawk for directional clues about the e-mini S&P 500. Both indices appear to have failed in their recovery rally attempt so far this morning, and since have turned lower.

If the Euro/USD remains beneath 1.30000, the likelihood is for another bout of long liquidation that unleashes another downleg that points next to 1.2880/50 on the way to 1.2500.

Conversely, only a resumption of strength that pushes above 1.3055/6 will argue that a secondary recovery pop is in progress that should propel the Euro/USD to test critical resistance at 1.3150.

Right now, we have to give the dominant downtrend the benefit of the doubt from a directional perspective, which could have increasingly negative implications for the e-SPH.

The index must hold support between 1203 and 1198 or else the price structure is vulnerable to downside continuation towards 1190/88 next.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.