NYMEX crude oil has reversed from new recovery highs at 103.37 to test its November support line at 99.20, which so far has contained the pressure.

However, judging by the sharply declining 40-hour RSI momentum gauge, we should expect additional pressure that extends weakness towards a test of much more important support at 98.25/00 next.

If this level is violated, this should unleash long liquidation that sends nearby oil to the 92-90 vicinity in a hurry. The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) and the ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) are ETFs to watch.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.