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Yen-Based Crosses Begin Long Retreat
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/1841/1/Yen-Based-Crosses-Begin-Long-Retreat/Page1.html
By Jamie Saettele
Published on 11/7/2005
 
Currency technical analyst Sam Shenker analyzes the Japanese yen against currency from Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand.

Yen-Based Crosses Begin Long Retreat

CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar bulls remain confined to a large upward sloping channel that dominated the price action since the middle of June, which topped out with Loonie longs pushing the pair briefly above par. A reversal from these levels will most likely see the cross test the Loonie bids around 96.52, a level established by 23.6 Fib of the 83.12-100.59 CAD rally, which is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA, thus seeing the CAD/JPY head toward the psychologically important 95.00 handle. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the Japanese yen longs push the cross toward 93.96, a  key 38.2 Fib of the 83.12-100.59 CAD rally. Indicators remain in favor of the Canadian dollar traders with both MACD and momentum indicator above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc longs quickly tumbled below the psychologically important 90.00 handle, after they failed to launch a sustained break out above the large channel's upper boundary. A further attack by the yen bulls will most likely see the cross head toward 88.94, a 38.2 Fib of the 84.84-91.48 CHF rally and with sustained momentum to the downside most likely seeing the yen longs taking on the Swissie defenses around 88.15, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of 84.84-91.48 CHF rally. Indicators remain in favor of the Swiss Franc longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 31.87 is signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls lost momentum and tumbled below the psychologically important 80.00 handle following a counter attack by the Japanese yen bulls. As Japanese yen bulls reestablish their dominance over the price action and push the cross lower, the next move to the downside will most likely see the cross test the New Zealand dollar defenses around 79.83, a level marked by the 50-day SMA, thus seeing the yen longs breaking below 79.35, a 23.6 Fib of the 70.79-81.95 NZD rally,. A sustained momentum on the part of the yen longs will most likely see the cross test Kiwi's defenses around 77.72, a 38.2 Fib of the 70.79-81.95 NZD rally. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX above the key 25 mark falling to 41.92, pointing to an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while both momentum and MACD remain above the zero line. While neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.