Technical Overview
- Euro Remains Below 1.2000
- Japanese Yen Bounces In Tight Range
- Canadian Dollar Remains Unchanged
Trader's Outlook
The tighter the range the more violent the breakout will be, the question is which direction the majors will move. This trader thinks the majors are due for a retrace, but given the recent selling pressure, the breakout against the dollar will force a lot of covering, further adding to the move.
1-Day Currency Pair Outlook
EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to see-saw around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle as the pair continued to trade within a tight trading range that dominated the price action for the past few trading sessions. In case euro bulls manage to establish the control over the price action, a next move to the upside will most likely see the single currency longs test the dollar defenses above the 1.2000 handle at 1.2013, a level marked by the October 17 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and take on the greenback defenses around 1.2100 handle, with a further move to the upside encountering a 50-day SMA at 1.2163. Indicators are favoring the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs remained virtually unchanged as the price action became nonexistent with the pair treading sideways in 115.00-116.00 trading range. A move below the psychologically important 115.00 handle will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 114.35, a level established by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head toward the 113.20, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.17-115.99 USD rally. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 27.42 signaling an existence of a trend not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives the yen longs a chance to retaliate.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
GBP/USD - British pound bulls once again failed to push the pair above the 1.7725, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.9219-1.7284 USD rally as the price action remain subdued. A break above the 1.7725 will most likely see the pair head higher and aim for 1.7820, a level marked by the August 31 daily high, with a further break to the upside taking on the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, with further dollar defenses seen around 1.8017, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.9219-1.7284 USD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line, while the negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc longs once again failed to gain momentum to the downside as the greenback longs kept the pair confined above the 1.2900 handle. As the price remained confined to a tight consolidation range a move tot the downside will most likely see the pair head toward the greenback defenses around 1.2797, a level established by the October 17 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie longs most likely seeing the pair take on the greenback bids around 1.2703, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.1492-1.3085 USD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator below the zero line, while the positive MACD is sloping downward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls remained confined to a 1.1857, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally, as the overall price action remained subdued. A further move the upside will most likely see the greenback bulls take on the Loonie defenses around 1.944, a level established by the September 6 daily high, with sustained momentum seeing the pair head above the psychologically important 1.2000 handle and take on the 1.2028, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line while negative MACD is sloping upward toward the zero line; with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to dance around the psychologically important .7500 handle as the pair remained below the .7513, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the.7991-.7374 USD rally. In case the Aussie longs try to push the greenback back above the .7500 handle, a sustained momentum on the part of the Australian dollar longs will most likely see the pair take on the US dollar defenses around .7555, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the greenback defenses around .7604, a 38.2 Fib of the .7991-.7374 USD rally. Indicators are favoring the US dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillator give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls remained undeterred as they kept the pair above the psychologically important .7000 handle. As New Zealand dollar longs manage to push tier way above the .7000 figure, a further move to the upside will most likely see Kiwi bulls lose their footing as the pair will most likely bounce off the .7075, a US dollar defensive position established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7498-.6681 USD rally. A reversal will most likely see the pair tumble below the .7000 figure and head toward the Kiwi's defenses around .6868, a 23.6 Fib of the .7498-.6681 USD rally Indicators are supportive of the New Zealand dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillator give either side enough room to maneuver.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.